Reading the Political Tea Leaves

While other local bloggers far more politically savvy than I are busy pointing out how good their primary election predictions were, I’d rather look ahead than back. There’s really only one race, now. The others were decided Tuesday.

The only real race is Paul Soglin v. Dave Cieslewicz. Hizzonner did amazingly well in areas of the city where he didn’t do so well last time around. Both of these guys are highly intelligent, highly motivated, and it’s going to be one wild, bumpy race for the next couple months. It’s NOT “old v. young”, as I see it, and both candidates have impeccable progressive credentials. But Paul has a demonstrated ability to GET THINGS DONE in Madison, knows how to deal with labor issues, and is, I think, better-equipped to deal with the challenges the city faces under the Walker administration.

County Exec? That race is over. It’s Joe Parisi. Eileen Bruskewitz’s own statements about how she feels about what Scott Walker is doing will be her doom in the general election. Her stance on the Regional Transit Authority will capture some votes for her, but when Parisi talks about what’s going to happen in Dane County under the Walker administration, she’s toast. All his campaign has to do is find a picture of her with Scott Walker and put it on TV.

But the nastiest race will be between incumbent Supreme Court Justice Dave Prosser and JoAnne Kloppenburg. Ya think that campaign might be a bit “negative”? Since it’s a statewide race, this will be another bonanza for the broadcasters. Let the TV ads begin!

Prosser, by the way, didn’t run any TV ads in the four-way primary. The right-wingers at the Wisconsin Club for Growth took care of that for him, spending north of 300 grand to connect their man with law and order. If you listened to the ad carefully, it didn’t ask you to vote for him. It just positioned him with law enforcement and sang his praises as a fair and honest judge. That subtlety – not asking for a vote – was calculated to avoid triggering any “rescue funds” for the three other candidates, in terms of public financing rules, ironically called the “Impartial Justice” law.

I’m convinced the folks on East Wash (Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce), who sat out the Abrahamson – Koschnick race two years ago, will be back in it this time to protect their investment in Madame GutCheck (Justice Ziegler) and Herr Goebellman (Justice Gableman). Let the ads begin.